Bitwise Says HYPE Could Double as Protocol Revenue Reshapes Crypto Valuation

Bitwise believes HYPE could double in price and still carry a reasonable valuation, but the claim is narrower than headlines suggesting that crypto assets broadly deserve to double. The argument applies specifically to Hyperliquid’s revenue growth and the mechanism connecting that revenue to HYPE buybacks.

For traders following the HYPE/USDT market on MEXC, the more important question is not whether HYPE can reach an arbitrary price target. It is whether Hyperliquid can sustain its revenue, continue directing that revenue toward the token and grow fast enough to justify a higher valuation multiple.

That distinction matters. Protocol revenue is becoming a useful valuation input, but only when token holders can identify a credible path from platform activity to token demand.

Bitwise’s “Double” Assessment Applies to HYPE, Not the Entire Market

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan wrote that HYPE “could double in price and still be fairly valued.” He did not predict that every crypto asset—or even every revenue-generating token—would double.

The assessment was based on Hyperliquid’s operating performance. According to Bitwise, the protocol surpassed $1 billion in lifetime revenue in June 2026 and was on pace to generate approximately $800 million during the year. Hyperliquid directs 99% of eligible protocol revenue toward open-market HYPE purchases through its assistance fund.

This gives HYPE something many tokens lack: a visible connection between platform usage and recurring market demand for the token.

However, “fairly valued” remains an analyst’s judgment rather than a guaranteed price target. It assumes that trading activity remains strong, the revenue stream proves durable and the buyback mechanism continues without a material governance or regulatory disruption.

Protocol Revenue Matters Only When Value Reaches the Token

The market frequently treats user fees, protocol revenue and tokenholder value as interchangeable. They are not.

User fees measure how much customers pay to use an application. Protocol revenue is the portion retained after incentives, liquidity-provider payments and other operating distributions. Token value accrual describes what happens to that retained income—and whether the token benefits from it at all.

A protocol can generate substantial fees while its token remains economically disconnected from the business. Revenue may stay in a treasury, subsidize users or fund development without producing direct token demand. In that case, rising activity does not automatically justify a higher token valuation.

Hyperliquid’s buyback model makes the transmission mechanism easier to observe. More activity can produce more revenue, which can finance additional HYPE purchases. That does not guarantee appreciation, but it gives investors a measurable framework that is absent from tokens relying almost entirely on narrative.

HYPE Offers a More Measurable Valuation Model

Bitwise previously estimated Hyperliquid’s annualized revenue at roughly $800 million to $1 billion. Based on the project’s market value at the time, the token was trading at a multiple of approximately 10 to 14 times its annual buyback stream.

That comparison makes HYPE look more like a revenue-linked digital asset than a conventional governance token. Yet it should not be valued exactly like a stock.

Shareholders typically have legally defined claims, financial disclosures and established protections. HYPE holders do not own equity in Hyperliquid and have no equivalent claim on company assets or liquidation proceeds. Token buybacks are also governed by protocol rules that may change.

Investors therefore need to apply a discount for weaker legal rights, regulatory uncertainty and the volatility of crypto trading revenue. The valuation case becomes stronger when revenue grows, but the risks do not disappear merely because the protocol is profitable.

Buybacks Must Be Compared With Dilution

Gross buyback numbers can create an incomplete picture. What matters is the token’s net supply trajectory.

If buybacks remove or permanently isolate more tokens than emissions, unlocks and treasury distributions introduce, the mechanism may tighten the liquid supply. If new supply exceeds purchases, headline buyback figures can overstate the benefit to existing holders.

The valuation also changes depending on whether traders use circulating market capitalization or fully diluted valuation. A token may appear inexpensive against its current circulating supply while looking significantly more expensive after accounting for tokens that could enter the market later.

For HYPE, the strongest version of the bull case requires three conditions to hold simultaneously: durable protocol revenue, continued buybacks and controlled dilution. Weakness in any one of those areas could challenge the assumption that the token deserves a higher multiple.

UNI, AAVE and MORPHO Face the Same Value-Capture Test

Bitwise also identified Uniswap, Aave and Morpho as examples of protocols moving toward a closer relationship between platform economics and token value. The opportunity is not simply that these applications generate activity. It is that governance communities are increasingly discussing how economic value should reach token holders.

The market is likely to judge each case separately. Proposed fee mechanisms carry less weight than implemented ones, and governance approval is not the same as consistent execution. Investors should examine where fees go, who controls the revenue and whether future token issuance can offset any value distributed through buybacks or other mechanisms.

This could gradually separate productive protocols from tokens supported primarily by attention. Revenue alone will not determine performance, but it gives the market a harder reference point when deciding which assets deserve sustained valuation premiums.

Revenue-Linked Tokens May Increase Market Dispersion

The larger implication of Bitwise’s HYPE thesis is not that all crypto valuations should rise together. It is that the market may become more selective.

Tokens with growing usage, defensible revenue and enforceable value-capture mechanisms could receive higher multiples. Assets without those qualities may struggle even during periods of improving risk appetite. That would represent a shift away from markets in which liquidity lifts nearly every token regardless of fundamentals.

For short-term traders, the HYPE valuation debate can still create momentum and speculative demand. For longer-term investors, the decisive variables are revenue quality and mechanism durability.

Trading revenue can be highly cyclical, particularly when it depends on leveraged speculation. A sharp decline in market activity could reduce both protocol earnings and buyback demand at the same time. That feedback loop works in both directions.

What HYPE Traders Should Monitor Next

The first signal is whether Hyperliquid can maintain its revenue after periods of unusually strong trading activity. Revenue supported by recurring users and multiple product categories is more defensible than revenue concentrated in a temporary speculative surge.

The second is actual buyback execution. Traders should compare purchase activity with token unlocks, emissions and other additions to circulating supply rather than viewing the buyback figure in isolation.

Governance decisions also matter. Any change to fee allocation could alter the connection between protocol growth and HYPE demand. Regulatory restrictions, security incidents or declining liquidity could weaken the model even if the underlying technology continues to operate.

Bitwise’s assessment presents a credible valuation argument, but not a simple promise that HYPE will double. The investment case depends on whether Hyperliquid can turn current revenue strength into a durable economic advantage—and whether that value continues to flow to the token.

Recommended Reading on MEXC

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• Check the MORPHO price on MEXC

FAQ

Did Bitwise predict that all crypto assets would double?

No. The statement that an asset could double and remain fairly valued referred specifically to HYPE. It was based on Hyperliquid’s revenue and token buyback model, not a forecast for the entire crypto market.

Why could protocol revenue support HYPE’s value?

Hyperliquid directs 99% of eligible protocol revenue toward open-market HYPE purchases. This creates a clearer connection between platform usage and token demand, although it does not guarantee price appreciation.

Is HYPE equivalent to owning shares in Hyperliquid?

No. HYPE is a crypto token, not company equity. Holders do not automatically receive the legal ownership rights, financial claims or investor protections normally associated with shares.

Are token buybacks always bullish?

Not necessarily. Their impact depends on revenue durability, purchase execution, liquidity and the amount of new supply entering circulation through unlocks or emissions.

Could other protocol tokens receive similar valuations?

Potentially, but only when revenue is connected to the token through a credible and durable mechanism. High fees alone are insufficient if token holders do not benefit from the underlying economic activity.

Risk Warning

HYPE and other protocol tokens can experience substantial price volatility. Revenue estimates, buyback policies and token-supply conditions may change, while past growth does not ensure future performance. Investors should verify current market data, understand the difference between tokens and equity, and assess whether any position fits their financial circumstances and risk tolerance.

Research checked outside article body: Bitwise CIO memos, Bitwise Crypto Market Review, Hyperliquid protocol materials, Token Terminal data and MEXC market pages.