Ethereum (ETH) Price: Weak Buying and Rising Exchange Supply Signal Fragile Recovery

TLDR

• ETH has gained nearly 10% this month but buying pressure remains weak
• Binance ETH reserves jumped by 221,000 ETH since late June, increasing available supply
• Whale trading activity has dropped to “Whale Left” levels on CryptoQuant
• US spot ETH ETFs posted four straight days of inflows totaling $91.5 million
• ETH must break above $1,803 (50-day EMA) to open the path toward $2,400

Ethereum has posted close to a 10% gain since the start of July, but the recovery is showing clear signs of strain. Data from multiple sources points to a market where buyers are present but not yet committed.

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has moved from -0.46 to -0.30. That means investors are still holding ETH at a loss, just a smaller one than before.

US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded four consecutive days of net inflows for the first time since early May. The total across those four days came to $91.5 million, according to SoSoValue data.

That sounds positive, but historically, ETF inflows need to stay elevated for a longer period to drive a major price move. So far, that has not happened.

Analyst Ash Crypto posted on X that ETH is down 6% from its recent high after being rejected at the 50-day moving average. He identified $1,670 and $1,500 as the next key support levels, and said ETH needs to reclaim the MA 50 and $1,850 to push toward $2,400.

Whale Demand Dries Up

CryptoQuant data shows whale trading volume dropped from around 1,500 ETH per trade in mid-May to roughly 1,000 ETH, falling into what the platform calls the “Whale Left” zone.

Large investors pulling back means fewer large orders in the market. That makes prices more sensitive to smaller buys and sells, which can increase short-term volatility.

Wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH did see inflows of around 100,000 ETH over the past week. But their overall balance has barely changed over three weeks, suggesting accumulation is not accelerating.

Exchange Reserves On the Rise

Binance ETH reserves grew from 3.64 million ETH to 3.87 million ETH since late June, an increase of 221,000 ETH. That is one of the largest reserve increases seen recently.

Higher exchange reserves mean more ETH is available for immediate trading. This does not automatically mean selling is coming, but it adds potential supply pressure to an already fragile market.

The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks US investor sentiment, has recovered from -0.169 to -0.076. It remains negative, meaning US buyers are still paying less for ETH than global markets.

ETH currently trades around $1,740 to $1,777. The coin is holding above the 20-day EMA at $1,714. Open interest in derivatives has stayed flat, showing leveraged traders are sitting on the sidelines.

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