Can Bersama’s 15 deliver?

With less than two months since its formation, Bersama is fielding just 15 candidates in its maiden electoral outing — a smart call given the risks involved.

Contesting all 56 seats would have been too ambitious and fraught with peril for a party this fresh.

It is understandable for Umno and Pakatan Harapan to contest all seats—they possess the organisational architecture, grassroots machinery, governmental infrastructure and project allocation machinery. Umno also enjoys the additional advantage of incumbency.

Perikatan Nasional is also wise to contest 33 seats through Bersatu (16), PAS (11), the Malaysian Indian People’s Party (5) and Pejuang (1). It is better to consolidate its strength on promising constituencies so that a substantial showing might open the door to a post-polls coalition with the party possessing the largest number of seats – widely expected to be Umno.

A clear sign of this arose on June 28 when PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man urged its members and supporters to vote for Umno or BN candidates in state constituencies where PN is not contesting.

Muda is contesting four seats, while Parti Sosialis Malaysia and Parti Orang Asli Malaysia are fielding one candidate each, indicating they know their strengths and voter support only too well. Six independent candidates also filed nomination papers on June 27.

In the now-dissolved state assembly, Barisan Nasional held 40 seats, Pakatan Harapan had 12, Perikatan Nasional had 3 and Muda had one.

Bersama, the vehicle that Rafizi Ramli is banking on to keep his political career alive, is fielding a mix of professionals, entrepreneurs and community figures. Rafizi said a total of 73 individuals applied online to become candidates but the party decided to contest only 15 seats.

“They (the candidates) are not well-known or prominent figures, just ordinary people, but they will carry the voice of the people as representatives entrusted with a proper mandate. Maybe we will not win this election, but I am confident that in the next five or six years, Bersama will be accepted and able to win elections,” he said.

Bersama co-leader Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad described the contest in Johor as a “calculated risk”, adding: “We want to contest in places where we feel there is potential for us to cause a surprise.”

Rafizi and Nik Nazmi understand that stretching resources and staking everything upon untested ordinary Malaysians across 56 seats could bury Bersama if it fails to secure even one victory.

Bersama is, therefore, not aiming to take over Johor. Its stated target is not to lose deposits. Bersama, it appears, just wants to test the waters and lay its foundation for the next general election.

Rafizi and Nik Nazmi will certainly bring their Cabinet experience and campaign know-how, cultivated when they were with PKR, to Johor. But will that be enough in the bastion of Umno?

Umno still controls the classic machinery: division chairmen, mosque committees, community brokers, and deep pockets. It can flood rural and semi-rural areas with loyal voters, funds, and patronage.

In a state where 56% of voters are Malay, race and religion are powerful weapons that Umno and PAS can easily use against Bersama, and PH too, through their rallying cries of “Malay unity” and “Muslim unity”.

However, Bersama’s digital strength will appeal greatly to urban, educated, tech-savvy voters, which explains why it has chosen to contest largely in urban and semi-urban constituencies.

Bersama is contesting in Bukit Naning (Iskandar Md Alias); Mahkota (Abd Hamid Ali); Tiram (Harith Fakhrudin Abd Malek); Puteri Wangsa (Nicholas Paul Vincent); Johor Jaya (Lau Yi Leong); Permas (Dr Zamil Najwah); Larkin (Norsinah Abu); Stulang (Stanley Tan); Perling (Boo Wei Han): Kempas (Salamahafifi Mohd Yusnaieny); Skudai (Eugene Chua Meng Chong); Kota Iskandar ( Sahrudin Omar); Bukit Permai (Muhammad Aidil Riduan Mohd Yusof); Bukit Batu (Tamili Gopalakrishnan); and Senai (Tew Chian How).

The party with the kancil logo knows that its best chances of winning are in the urban, and mainly Chinese majority, constituencies.

Bersama will also be banking on the fact that nearly half of Johor’s 2.73 million voters are under the age of 40 and can relate to its platform politics – its digital-first, asset-declaration, non-patronage model.

The largest voting bloc comprises those aged 30 to 39, numbering 587,888 voters (21.6%), followed by the 21 to 29 age group with 544,657 voters (20%).

The 15 candidates have until July 11 to convince voters that, as Rafizi often says, national politics needs a new approach where the focus is on solving the people’s issues rather than engaging in toxic power struggles between political parties.

Most analysts expect Bersama to lose in all the seats it is contesting, with a few saying it might win one or two. But if turnout is high, economic grievances dominate, and multi-cornered fights fragment traditional votes, Bersama may yet spring a surprise.

If it loses in all 15 constituencies, the urban tech-savvy voters who jumped ship from PKR might feel let down, and the civil servants who joined could wonder if it was all hype. Other parties will then dismiss it as a minor distraction.

However, Bersama and its volunteers would have gained enough ground experience to stand them in good stead in the Negeri Sembilan state election on Aug 1, where it will expect to do better.

If it wins one or two seats, it would be a big morale boost for young professionals and technocrats, and its supporters would feel validated. Then it can be expected to do better in Negeri Sembilan, and other parties will take notice.

If it wins 5 to 10 seats, then Bersama will not only capture more seats in Negeri Sembilan but also signal its ability to become a genuine third force in national politics.

We will know which of the three scenarios works out on polling day, July 11.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.