Solana (SOL) Rallies to $72 — Genuine Reversal or False Breakout?

Key Highlights

• SOL surged from $64 to $72, accompanied by bullish futures funding rates hitting their peak since June
• Trading volume for tokenized equities on Solana reached $113M in a single day, though shallow liquidity poses risks
• Network TVL contracted by 11% in the last 30 days, with significant declines across Kamino, Raydium, and Binance Staked SOL
• DEX trading volumes collapsed from $30B in February to just $10B, while protocol revenues touched levels unseen since December 2023
• Pump.fun accounts for 30% of DApp revenue, yet 80% of its token launches fail within two days

Solana’s SOL token staged a notable recovery on Friday, advancing from $64 to $72 in a 14% rally that ended a period characterized by negative futures funding rates. This upward movement coincided with heightened activity in tokenized equity trading on the blockchain.

Trading volume for tokenized equities on Solana exceeded $113 million within a 24-hour window, based on data from Jupiter Aggregator. Artificial intelligence sector assets dominated this trading surge, although limited liquidity in the associated pools has sparked skepticism about the sustainability of this interest.

Cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe shared his perspective on the price action, highlighting technical indicators he interprets as bullish. He observed that SOL has established a higher low, crossed above its 21-day moving average, and printed a higher high — patterns he considers indicative of a favorable entry point. Van de Poppe expressed confidence that SOL could surpass $100 in the near future, citing strength he observes throughout the broader ecosystem when evaluated against Bitcoin trading pairs.

Network Fundamentals Paint Concerning Picture

While the price rebounded, fundamental metrics across Solana show deterioration. Total Value Locked across the network decreased by 11% throughout the past month. Kamino experienced a 19% decline, Raydium fell 17%, and Binance Staked SOL contracted by 20%.

Decentralized exchange volumes have plummeted from $30 billion weekly in early February to approximately $10 billion currently. Protocol revenues dropped to just $2.9 million during the week concluding June 14, marking the weakest performance since December 2023, per Artemis analytics.

Daily active addresses did surge to their highest count since March 30. This uptick might indicate users transferring holdings to offline storage — though it could equally suggest preparation for liquidation through centralized platforms.

Chart Formation Suggests Additional Downside

SOL recently developed a double-top formation at the $75 level on daily timeframes. Pattern confirmation would occur should price break back beneath $70. In such a scenario, market watchers identify $61 as the immediate downside target, with $50 representing a potential medium-term objective.

The Relative Strength Index currently registers at 48. A decline beneath 40 would trigger bearish signals according to technical trading frameworks.

Pump.fun continues generating 30% of all Solana DApp revenue. A CoinGecko analysis revealed that 80% of tokens launched through the platform survived less than 48 hours, with 55% of participating wallets experiencing losses up to $1,000.

Competitive pressures are mounting as well. Hyperliquid and centralized platforms operating on alternative blockchains are entering the tokenized equity space. OKX recently announced a collaboration with the NYSE parent entity utilizing Ethereum-based infrastructure.

Expectations surrounding upcoming airdrops are providing some optimistic sentiment, with initiatives such as OnRe ($200M TVL), Bulk ($325M open interest), and Loopscale ($79M TVL) all developing on Solana infrastructure. SOL most recently touched $80 on June 1.

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