Winter Is Over, Welcome Back To Crypto Spring, Standard Chartered Says

Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick said the crypto market has likely already seen the low for the current cycle, arguing that Bitcoin’s (BTC) fall to $59,000 may mark the end of the latest downturn as macro and institutional catalysts begin to turn more constructive.

“I think we have now seen the low in crypto asset prices for the cycle,” Kendrick wrote in a note Friday. “That would be USD59k for BTC.”

Kendrick said two developments could help confirm that view: a possible U.S.-Iran peace deal linked to the G7 and the SpaceX initial public offering. He said a peace deal, if confirmed, could reduce pressure from higher oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields, while the SpaceX IPO may ease recent selling pressure from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

“Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring,” Kendrick wrote.

ETF Flows Become Key Test For Bitcoin Recovery

Kendrick said recent weeks had seen some of the sharpest selling in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs since their launch. He cited anecdotal evidence that some Bitcoin ETF holders had been selling to free up cash for the SpaceX IPO.

The next confirmation points, according to Kendrick, are whether Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, announces another Bitcoin purchase on Monday, whether Bitcoin ETFs post a positive inflow day, and whether oil prices continue to move lower.

Bitcoin was trading around $63,700, up 1.2% at the time of publication.

According to Iliya Kalchev, analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch, spot Bitcoin ETFs were heading for a fourth consecutive week of outflows. However, the pace had slowed to $401.7 million so far this week from $1.72 billion in the prior week.

That slowdown, Kalchev said, was “an early signal worth noting.”

“If the Iran deal is confirmed this weekend, the first meaningful test will be whether ETF flows reverse,” Kalchev said. He added that the institutional bid behind Bitcoin’s April recovery had been built on similar macro relief.

Iran Deal Hopes Shift Macro Backdrop

The market’s improved tone came as investors weighed reports of progress toward a U.S.-Iran peace deal. Kalchev said Brent crude had fallen to around $86.50, a two-month low, as hopes grew that a deal could include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of U.S. oil sanctions and the release of frozen Iranian funds.

A sustained decline in oil prices would matter for crypto because lower energy prices could reduce inflation pressure and ease the upward pressure on bond yields. Kendrick framed that as one of the key conditions needed for the Bitcoin low to hold.

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Kalchev said a confirmed Iran deal would be “the single most significant macro development since the conflict began,” because it could unwind the oil premium, ease inflation expectations and potentially reverse institutional outflows from crypto products.

Options positioning also suggested that institutional investors were not preparing for an immediate spike, but for a gradual recovery. Kalchev said institutional options structures this week were designed for maximum profit if Bitcoin settles near $75,000 by the end of July.

“The $60,000–$65,000 range remains the near-term reference zone, with the 200-week moving average at around $61,000 providing the structural floor,” Kalchev said.

Analysts Still Want Stronger Spot Demand

Not all analysts are treating the recovery as confirmed. Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, said Bitcoin still needs stronger spot buying before the market can establish a durable floor.

“Bitcoin is moving through a late-stage correction, and Glassnode’s capitulation framework looks directionally right,” Young said. “Demand is the weak point.”

Young said part of the recent decline appeared to reflect forced selling from leveraged positions. He said ETF flows and U.S. trading activity should be watched first for signs of demand returning.

“The real test is whether buyers are willing to absorb supply around current levels,” Young said.

Young identified $60,000 as the key near-term level. Holding that area would suggest buyers are beginning to defend the market, while a failure to improve demand could leave Bitcoin vulnerable to a move toward $53,000 to $54,000.

He said he would be more comfortable with a recovery once Bitcoin moves back above $65,000, then holds above $70,000 with real spot buying behind it. A return to the $76,000 to $82,000 range, he added, would make the market look repaired after the correction.

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