Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Iran Talks, Bond Yields, and Nvidia Earnings Weigh on BTC

TLDR

• Bitcoin is trading around $77,175, up 0.4%, after slipping near $76,000 earlier this week
• U.S.-Iran peace talks are lifting market sentiment slightly, with Trump saying war could end “very quickly”
• The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.687%, its highest since January 2025, weighing on risk assets
• Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $648.6M on Monday — the largest single-day exit since January 29
• K33 Research says derivatives data shows “uniquely pessimistic” sentiment, but maintains February’s $60,000 low was the cycle’s deepest drop

Bitcoin is trading around $77,175 as of Wednesday morning, up 0.4% on the day. The gain comes after the price slipped close to $76,000 earlier this week, following a retreat from highs above $82,000 last week.

Market mood got a small lift from comments by U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance on Tuesday. Trump said the conflict with Iran could end “very quickly” if talks move forward. Vance said Washington and Tehran had made progress, while noting the U.S. remained “locked and loaded” if diplomacy fails.

Oil prices dipped slightly on the news but stayed above $110 per barrel. Analysts noted that a further drop in oil prices could help ease inflation concerns that have been weighing on crypto and tech stocks.

Rising Bond Yields Limit Upside

Treasury yields continued to climb. The 10-year yield hit 4.687%, its highest point since January 2025, while the 30-year yield touched 5.198% — levels not seen since 2007. Higher yields tend to pull money away from riskier assets like Bitcoin.

Traders were also holding back ahead of Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report on Wednesday, seen as a major test for broader market sentiment.

Crypto analyst Ali Charts noted that BTC funding rates hit 0.4% — the highest level in over two months. He said this shows derivatives traders are “aggressively positioning for another leg up,” even as Bitcoin consolidates near the $76,900 zone. High funding rates can indicate a crowded long trade, which can lead to sharp short-term moves if the market turns.

ETF Outflows Hit a Four-Month High

Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $648.6 million on Monday, according to data from Santiment. That was the largest single-day exit since January 29.

Santiment noted that large ETF outflows have recently acted as a contrarian signal. Several of Bitcoin’s strongest recent rallies have come shortly after major outflow events, when fear was peaking. The firm described this as the most prominent period of fear and uncertainty in over three and a half months.

Research firm K33 published a report Tuesday arguing that the current market setup looks different from Bitcoin bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022. In prior cycles, price rejections near the 200-day moving average were followed by a quick rebuild in leverage and bullish positioning that later collapsed.

This time, K33 head of research Vetle Lunde wrote, derivatives data points to “uniquely pessimistic sentiment.” Bitcoin’s 30-day average funding rate has been negative for 81 consecutive days, close to its longest ever streak. CME futures basis recently fell below 2.5%, a level associated with extreme caution.

K33’s base case remains that Bitcoin’s drop to $60,000 in February marked the deepest decline of this cycle.

Bitcoin last traded at $77,224 as of Tuesday evening, according to CoinDesk data.

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