Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains near $4,720 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. However, the potential upside for the precious metal might be limited due to hotter-than-expected US inflation and shifting geopolitical tensions. Traders will take more cues from the US April Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which is due later on Wednesday.
Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 3.8% YoY in April, compared to 3.3% in March. This figure came in hotter than the expectation of 3.7% and registered the highest since May 2023.
On a monthly basis, the headline CPI rose 0.6% in April versus 0.9% prior, matching analysts’ estimate. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.4% and 2.8% on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively.
Following the hot US inflation data, traders raised the odds for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike by the end of the year to about 30%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. This, in turn, could weigh on the yellow metal. It’s worth noting that Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
Traders will keep an eye on US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meeting in Beijing on Thursday and Friday. It will be Trump’s first trip to China since 2017. Trump said on Tuesday that he would prioritize trade discussions during his summit with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping and downplayed the amount of attention they would devote to the Iran war.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-edges-higher-above-4-700-despite-hotter-us-inflation-trump-xi-summit-in-focus-202605122314
