Bitcoin closed the week at $78,230, down 2.3%, after North Korea-linked hackers drained an estimated $6.36 billion from Binance on Thursday night in the largest crypto theft on record. Forced sellingBitcoin closed the week at $78,230, down 2.3%, after North Korea-linked hackers drained an estimated $6.36 billion from Binance on Thursday night in the largest crypto theft on record. Forced selling
Learn/Daily & Weekly Reports/Alpha Trader Weekly/Weekly Crypto Market Report: Bitcoin Holds $76K Support After Record $6.3B Binance Hack
Weekly Crypto Market Report: Bitcoin Holds $76K Support After Record $6.3B Binance Hack
Bitcoin closed the week at $78,230, down 2.3%, after North Korea-linked hackers drained an estimated $6.36 billion from Binance on Thursday night in the largest crypto theft on record. Forced selling wiped out about $1.5 billion in mostly long positions and pulled $643 million out of spot Bitcoin ETFs in a single session. Binance covered the loss from its own funds, so the shock hit confidence without turning into a solvency problem, and Bitcoin held above its $76,140 weekly low. The larger pressure for the weeks ahead comes from a Federal Reserve that held rates at 3.75%–4.00% with two votes for a hike, while an oil shock tied to the Iran war keeps inflation elevated.
Key Takeaways
- Record hack, limited price damage. An estimated $6.36 billion left Binance on October 29, yet Bitcoin's lowest daily close of the week was $77,180 and it finished down 2.3% at $78,230.
- Institutions stepped back. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643 million on Friday alone, Ether ETFs posted a fifth straight week of outflows and Solana ETFs recorded their largest weekly outflow on record.
- Macro is the bigger headwind. The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00% with two votes for a hike, and futures price a December increase at about 80%.
- The level to watch. A daily close below $76,140 opens $75,538 and the 200-day average near $73,136, while reclaiming $79,107 points to the 50-day average near $81,906.
Market Scoreboard
Every major gauge closed the week weaker, with ETF redemptions, shrinking stablecoin supply and a sell-off in gold all pointing to risk leaving the market at once.
Indicator | Level at week's end | Weekly move and context |
Bitcoin (BTC) | $78,230 | −2.3%; weekly range $76,140–$81,890 |
Ether (ETH) | about $2,275 | about −2%; low of about $2,170 on Oct 30 |
Total crypto market cap | about $2.7 trillion | October down 10%, from $3 trillion |
Crypto Fear & Greed Index | 34 (Fear) | Lowest zone in several months |
Spot Bitcoin ETFs | −$203 million net | Friday alone: −$643 million |
Spot Ether ETFs | −$432 million net | Fifth straight week of outflows |
Stablecoin supply | $298.5 billion | −$3.1 billion since Oct 28 |
Fed funds target range | 3.75%–4.00% | Held, 10–2 vote; two dissents for a hike |
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield | 4.94% | Down 6 bps from 5.00% on Oct 23 |
Gold (spot) | about $3,890 | About −3% on the week; one-year low |
Silver (spot) | about $49 | −5.9% on Friday; below $50 |
S&P 500 | Friday session | −1.8% on Friday on the AI-spending sell-off |
BTC and ETH figures are UTC daily closes from Twelve Data (Coinbase and Binance feeds); fund flows are SoSoValue data for U.S. sessions Oct 26–30.
Main Event: How the Binance Hack Spilled Across the Market
At 20:05 UTC on Thursday, October 29, Binance wallets on ten blockchains began sending their balances to a single attacker, and within about 20 minutes most of an estimated $6.36 billion was gone. That is roughly four times the $1.5 billion taken from Bybit in February 2025. TRM Labs attributes the attack with high confidence to TraderTraitor, the North Korean unit the FBI blamed for Bybit, and Chainalysis CEO Jonathan Levin reached the same view. The FBI says it is working with public and private partners on the case.
The method matters to anyone who keeps assets on a centralized exchange. On Ethereum, the attacker used an EIP-7702 delegation, a feature introduced in the May 2025 Pectra upgrade, to turn a Binance hot wallet into a sweeper contract only it could command. It submitted 50 pre-signed authorizations so that one would match the wallet's constantly moving nonce. In the same half hour, Binance wallets on nine other chains signed ordinary transfers to the attacker, which TRM reads as a compromise of Binance's hot-wallet signing system. Binance traced the entry point to a DevOps engineer's compromised laptop.
TRM Labs on-chain trace, Oct 29–30, 2026 · 8 chain groups, values at time of transfer
Stablecoin issuers froze about $2.67 billion within hours. Tether locked roughly 1.77 billion USDT, Circle about 825 million USDC, Ripple 40.5 million RLUSD and World Liberty Financial 27.8 million USD1, while Arbitrum's Security Council moved about $30 million out of the attacker's reach. The attacker raced those freezes by selling USDT for ETH at a discount of more than 10%, and still controls more than 420,000 ETH and 18,270 BTC, worth about $2.4 billion. The BTC is being split into 1,000 and 100 BTC pieces through a peel chain, so deposits from those addresses to exchanges and OTC desks are the overhang traders should track.
The market treated the hack as a confidence shock. Liquidations passed $1.54 billion by Friday morning, with longs taking just over 80% of the losses, and Bitcoin fell as low as $76,140. Total crypto market value dropped from $2.73 trillion to $2.59 trillion between 17:00 UTC Thursday and 14:30 UTC Friday, and Coinbase shares closed Friday down 10.6%. BNB, Binance's own token, lost less over the week than Bitcoin, Ether or Solana, a sign that traders took the exchange's pledge to cover every user loss at face value.
Binance reopened withdrawals in phases from 06:00 UTC on Sunday, November 1. In the first nine and a half hours it processed $4.65 billion out and $1.01 billion in, a net outflow of $3.64 billion, equal to 2.1% of the $171 billion shown in its last proof-of-reserves snapshot. By Monday the net figure had grown to $4.7 billion, about 3% of assets, and Binance said it had already replenished about 95% of the stolen assets from company funds. Users moved money, but the outflow stayed a low single-digit share of assets, and the updated proof of reserves due this week is the next test of that balance sheet.
Macro and Cross-Asset: A Hawkish Fed, an AI Sell-Off and Gold Failing as a Haven
The Federal Reserve held the federal funds range at 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday, October 28, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voting for a quarter-point hike. The hold followed a September increase, the first since 2023, and futures now price a December hike at around 80%. For crypto, a central bank that is still tightening turns the usual liquidity tailwind into a headwind.
Wall Street sold off for reasons that had nothing to do with Binance. Alphabet fell 12.6% on Thursday after record AI spending, and on Friday Intel lost 28.6% after warning it would burn cash this year, while Amazon held its 2026 capital spending plan at about $220 billion and signalled more for 2027. The S&P 500 dropped 1.8% on Friday and the Nasdaq finished October down 6.6%, so crypto lost the support of a strong equity tape just as its own shock arrived.
Gold offered no shelter. Spot gold fell 3.08% to $3,897 on Friday and silver 5.90% to $49.09, pushing the gold-to-silver ratio from about 74 to above 79 within a week. Metals traders sold because the Iran war keeps oil, and with it inflation and Fed hikes, elevated, and gold tends to rally when the Fed is forced to cut. With Bitcoin, gold and tech stocks all falling in the same session, holding several risk assets gave little protection this week.
The picture improved on Monday, after the data cutoff. West Texas Intermediate fell 6.2% to $97.63 and Brent 6.2% to $106.37 after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Trump prefers a diplomatic end to the Iran war, following Qatar-mediated talks, and gold climbed back above $3,900. Reports that both sides are preparing new strikes after Tuesday's midterm elections keep that relief fragile. The October ISM manufacturing index also rose to 55.5 from 54.5, beating the 54.6 forecast, but its prices index stood at 75.2. Factory strength is being read on crypto social media as a signal for an altcoin season, while those same input costs give the Fed more reason to hike in December.
Flows: Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows Spread as Stablecoin Supply Shrank
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in money on four straight days before the hack, then lost $643.33 million on Friday, their largest single-day outflow since June 25. BlackRock's IBIT, which had led the week's buying, shed $233.70 million that day, and Fidelity's FBTC lost $201.04 million.
SoSoValue daily data via TokenPost
U.S. sessions Oct 26–30, 2026
The redemptions spread well beyond Bitcoin. Spot Ether ETFs lost $432 million, their fifth straight week of withdrawals, and Solana ETFs posted a record weekly outflow of $71.47 million, led by Bitwise's BSOL at $45.82 million, with money leaving on all five sessions. XRP funds were the lone exception with a small net inflow of about $4.3 million. Across October, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $515 million of net outflows over 22 sessions, their first negative month since June.
On-chain dollar liquidity is shrinking as well. Stablecoin supply fell to $298.5 billion on November 1, down $3.1 billion from October 28 and $17 billion below its May 17 peak of $315.5 billion. Fewer new dollars arriving on-chain leaves less fresh buying power to absorb forced sellers. Corporate treasuries kept buying through the turmoil, with Strategy adding 810 BTC during the week.
Trading Key: Bitcoin Price Analysis and the Levels That Matter Now
Bitcoin's line in the sand is the $76,140 weekly low set on October 30, and it was trading near $76,700 early on November 3. A daily close below it opens the August 23 low at $75,538 and then the 200-day average near $73,136. On the upside, Bitcoin has to reclaim $79,107 and then close above its 50-day average near $81,906 before the October 4 high close of $86,489 comes back into view.
Twelve Data BTC/USD daily closes (Coinbase), Oct 25 – Nov 1, 2026 · levels from Twelve Data and 24/7 Wall St.
Ether spent the week between about $2,170 and $2,390 and closed near $2,275, so the $2,170 low is its support to defend. Leverage has already been cleared out: of the $1.54 billion liquidated after the hack, $1.29 billion came from long positions, which removes much of the forced selling that amplified Thursday's drop.
The week's winners point to where traders moved money after a centralized custodian was robbed. Over the seven days to Saturday, Hyperliquid's HYPE gained 17.7% and the privacy coins Zcash and Monero added 9.5% and 5.7%, while Cardano fell 6.4% and Solana 5.6% to about $96. Solana's record ETF outflow and its slide below $100 make it the weakest large-cap chart going into November.
Bull case. A daily close above $79,107 would put Bitcoin back above the level it lost in the hack session and open a move toward the 50-day average near $81,906. Confirmation would come from Bitcoin ETF flows turning positive again and from Binance's updated reserves showing no shortfall.
Bear case. A daily close below $76,140 would break the weekly low and expose the August 23 low at $75,538, then the 200-day average near $73,136. The likely triggers are exchange deposits from the attacker's wallets, a strong jobs report that firms up a December hike, or WTI climbing back above $100.
Week Ahead: Elections, Payrolls and a Proof-of-Reserves Test
The next ten days stack political, macro and exchange catalysts, and the November 11 MSCI list carries the most direct risk to Bitcoin's corporate bid.
Date | Event | Why it matters for crypto |
Tue, Nov 3 | U.S. midterm elections | Control of Congress shapes the path of the CLARITY Act on crypto market structure |
This week | Binance updated proof of reserves | First reserve snapshot that reflects the hack and the post-reopening outflows |
Wed, Nov 4 | First election results; Arm and Qualcomm earnings | Tests whether the AI-spending sell-off in tech keeps spreading |
Fri, Nov 6 | U.S. jobs report for October | A strong print firms up the December hike priced at about 80% |
Tue, Nov 10 | U.S. inflation data | Measures how much of the oil shock is reaching consumer prices |
Wed, Nov 11 | MSCI final list under its non-operating company rule | Strategy and Metaplanet face removal from global indexes, effective after Nov 30 |
Wed, Dec 9 | Fed decision with new projections | Next chance for the hike that two officials already voted for |
Risk Warning: Five Threats Ranked, With the Signal That Confirms Each
- Stolen coins reaching the market. The attacker still holds about 18,270 BTC and more than 420,000 ETH, worth roughly $2.4 billion and beyond any issuer's freeze. Large deposits from the peel-chain addresses to exchanges or OTC desks would add supply into a thin market, and a daily Bitcoin close below $76,140 would confirm that sellers are in control.
- A December Fed hike. Two officials already voted to raise rates in October, and the ISM prices index at 75.2 shows input costs still running hot. A strong jobs report on November 6 or a hot inflation print on November 10 would harden hike expectations and pressure every risk asset at once.
- A breakdown in the Iran talks. Monday's drop in oil below $100 rests on diplomacy that both sides are hedging with preparations for new strikes after the midterms. WTI back above $100 would revive the inflation trade that sank gold and kept the Fed hawkish this week.
- Exchange-security contagion. Brazil's largest exchange, Mercado Bitcoin, halted deposits and withdrawals on November 2 after Hypernative flagged more than $40 million in suspicious transfers across at least ten chains, and Tether froze over 4.5 million USDT tied to it. A third halt at a major venue, or a gap in Binance's updated reserves, would turn a single hack into a sector-wide custody scare.
- Index removal for Bitcoin treasury companies. MSCI publishes its list of non-operating companies on November 11, with removals effective after November 30. Exclusion of Strategy would force passive funds to sell its shares and could weaken the corporate buying that continued through this week's sell-off.
The level that ties these risks together is $76,140. As long as Bitcoin closes above it, the market is digesting a confidence shock; a close below it would show the shock spreading into the wider cycle.
Analyst's View
The Binance hack tested the market's plumbing harder than its conviction. Liquidations cleared $1.29 billion of long exposure, ETF holders sold for a single session and depositors pulled about 3% of Binance's assets, yet its lowest daily close of the week was $77,180. A market that absorbs the largest theft on record with a 2.3% weekly loss has already priced a great deal of bad news.
The harder problem is macro. A Fed that is still tightening and an oil shock that keeps inflation sticky leave little room for a lasting rally before the December 9 decision. I expect Bitcoin to hold the range between $76,140 and $79,107 this week, with Friday's jobs report and any movement of the attacker's 18,270 BTC toward exchanges deciding which edge breaks first.
On MEXC This Week
MEXC's latest proof of reserves, published on October 16 and audited by Hacken, put its reserve ratios at 294% for BTC, 111% for ETH, 122% for USDT and 115% for USDC. Users can confirm their own balances are included through a Merkle tree, and in a week when custody risk drove the market, that user-level check is what gives a crypto exchange proof of reserves its value.
On October 30, MEXC opened its Canton 0-Fee Carnival, which runs until November 30 with a $1 million prize pool and zero trading fees on CC/USDT and CC/USDC spot and CCUSDT futures. Traders following this report's levels can track the moves on BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT spot, along with MEXC's gold and silver perpetuals.
Frequently Asked Questions(FAQ)
Why did the crypto market fall this week?
The crypto market fell because a record $6.36 billion hack of Binance on October 29 triggered about $1.5 billion in liquidations and a $643 million single-day exit from Bitcoin ETFs. A hawkish Fed hold and a sell-off in AI-linked tech stocks added pressure, and Bitcoin ended the week down 2.3% at $78,230.
Is Binance safe to use after the hack?
Binance says it covered all user losses from company funds and had replenished about 95% of the stolen assets by November 1. Withdrawals reopened in phases that day, and net outflows reached about 3% of its assets by Monday. Its updated proof of reserves, due this week, is the clearest check of its balance sheet after the hack.
How much was stolen from Binance, and who was behind it?
TRM Labs traced about $6.36 billion moved out of Binance wallets on ten blockchains, the largest crypto theft on record. TRM attributes the attack with high confidence to TraderTraitor, a North Korean state hacking unit, and roughly $2.7 billion has been frozen on-chain.
What Bitcoin price levels should traders watch next?
Support sits at the $76,140 weekly low, then $75,538 and the 200-day average near $73,136. Resistance sits at $79,107, followed by the 50-day average near $81,906.
Will the Fed raise rates in December 2026?
Futures price a December hike at about 80% after Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted to raise rates at the October 28 meeting. The October jobs report on November 6 and inflation data on November 10 will decide whether that pricing holds before the Federal Reserve's December 9 interest rate decision.
Why did gold fall while crypto was under pressure?
Gold fell 3.08% to $3,897 on October 30 even as the 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.94%. Traders read the oil shock from the Iran war as a reason for the Fed to keep hiking, and gold tends to rally when the Fed is cutting, so it sold off alongside Bitcoin and tech stocks.
Methodology
The report covers Monday, October 26 through Sunday, November 1, 2026, with prices taken at UTC daily closes. Weekly price changes compare the October 25 close with the November 1 close. Seven-day altcoin moves come from CoinMarketCap as of October 31, 00:47 UTC, and ETF flows cover the five U.S. trading sessions from October 26 to 30.
Disclaimer: This report is for information only and is not investment advice. Digital assets are volatile, and past performance does not predict future results.
Market Opportunity
Bitcoin Price(BTC)
$75,680.48
$75,680.48$75,680.48
USD
Bitcoin (BTC) Live Price Chart
This article is provided by MEXC for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets involve significant risk. Please conduct independent research or consult a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. The views expressed do not necessarily represent those of MEXC or its affiliates.
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