- World Cup debutant Cabo Verde held tournament favorite and European champions Spain to a 0-0 draw.
- The upset produced one of Polymarket’s wildest swings, as a new wallet called “fishalive” turned about $4 million into roughly $9 million in profit by betting Spain would not win and Cabo Verde would stay within 2.5 goals.
- Another Polymarket trader, “betoor619,” lost nearly $1 million backing a Spain victory for a potential gain of only about $85,000, underscoring both the risks of heavy favorites and the scrutiny on anonymous, onchain betting.
FIFA World Cup debutants Cabo Verde held favourites Spain to a goalless draw on Monday, creating an outsized win for punters in a match that started with 1:10 betting odds against the minnows.
The result produced two of the most extreme outcomes crypto-based predictions platform Polymarket has seen this tournament. A brand-new wallet turned about $4 million into a profit of more than $9 million in a few hours, Polymarket data reviewed by CoinDesk shows. Meanwhile, another trader lost close to $1 million in a trade that would net just $85,000.
Cabo Verde was playing in its first World Cup with no high-profile professionals, while Spain was a pre-tournament favorite and the reigning European champions. Cabo Verde's 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha was named player of the match.
The winning account, which went by the name 'fishalive' and was created this month, made two bets against Spain, according to on-chain analytics firm Lookonchain. It wagered that Spain would not win the match outright and that Cabo Verde would stay within 2.5 goals, or a "spread bet."
When the game ended 0-0, both paid out. The wallet redeemed about $4.7 million on the Spain market and $8.5 million on the spread, per its public trading record, for a one-day profit of roughly $9 million.
On the other side, a trader using the name 'betoor619' lost nearly $1 million, Polymarket's trading records reviewed by CoinDesk show. The bettor had put almost $1.1 million on a Spain win when the market priced the favorite at about 92%. Had Spain won, the payout would have been only about $85,000, the thin reward typical of betting on near-certain outcomes.
The account had never won or lost more than $9,000 on a single event before, history tied to the account shows.
Polymarket is a prediction market where people trade shares tied to real-world outcomes, with prices that act as implied odds and settlement in USDC, a dollar-pegged stablecoin, on a public blockchain.
Traders use crypto wallets and operate under pseudonyms rather than real names, a feature lawmakers have criticized because the platform does not collect the background information regulated sportsbooks do.
About $64 million traded on the Spain match alone. Polymarket's market on the overall tournament winner has drawn about $2.4 billion, making the World Cup its biggest event since last year's U.S. election and pushing it past the roughly $1.4 billion wagered on this year's Super Bowl.
However, the same transparency that lets anyone bet anonymously also leaves a public trail. As every position settles onchain, outsiders could watch 'fishalive' turn a few million dollars into nine in real time, and could ask how a days-old account knew to bet so heavily against a 92% favorite.
While the identity might be shrouded in mystery, expect the anonymous account to now garner a cult following in the hopes of future winning trades.
