Novo Nordisk (NVO) Stock: Can Wegovy Pill Catch Lilly in China?

TLDR

• Novo Nordisk plans to file for Chinese regulatory approval of its oral Wegovy pill “within a few months”
• CEO Mike Doustdar made the announcement during his first China visit since taking the role in August
• Eli Lilly moved first, submitting its oral drug orforglipron to Chinese regulators at the end of 2025
• Semaglutide’s patent expired in China in March, with generic competition expected from Q2 2026
• NVO stock is up 0.09% and carries a Hold consensus rating with an average price target of $46

Novo Nordisk is pushing into China’s oral weight-loss drug market, with CEO Mike Doustdar confirming the company will file for regulatory approval of its Wegovy pill “very soon — a few months.”

Novo Nordisk A/S, NVO

The announcement came during Doustdar’s first trip to China since taking the top job last August. NVO stock was trading up 0.09% at the time of the announcement.

China is the world’s second-largest pharmaceutical market, and the GLP-1 weight-loss segment is one of its fastest-growing drug categories. Sales of GLP-1 treatments through Alibaba and JD.com alone hit around 1.4 billion yuan ($207 million) in Q1 alone, according to Jefferies.

Novo already has a foothold. Its injectable Wegovy received Chinese approval in mid-2024. An oral version would give the company a new entry point, targeting patients who prefer pills over injections.

But it’s playing catch-up. Eli Lilly submitted its once-daily oral drug orforglipron to Chinese regulators at the end of 2025, giving it a head start in the approval queue. Lilly also already markets Mounjaro in China for Type 2 diabetes and weight management.

Patent Clock Is Ticking

The competitive pressure isn’t just coming from Lilly. Semaglutide — the active ingredient in both Wegovy and Ozempic — lost patent protection in China in March. Novo retains regulatory data protection until early next year, but generic competition is expected to arrive as early as Q2 2026.

Doustdar acknowledged the threat but pointed to manufacturing scale as a barrier to entry. “Not many of our competitors will be able to reach that level, have the capabilities,” he said, referring to the complexity of producing the oral formulation at scale.

To stay competitive against generics and local copycat drugs, Novo has already cut Wegovy prices in parts of China.

Pfizer and local player Innovent Biologics have also entered the market, though the overall market-share picture in China remains murky. Neither Innovent nor Lilly discloses Chinese sales figures.

Novo launched its Wegovy pill in the U.S. earlier this year after receiving early approval there and in the UK. Lilly followed with U.S. approval for orforglipron in April.

What Analysts Think

On Wall Street, NVO carries a Hold consensus rating based on three unanimous Hold calls on TipRanks. The average price target sits at $46, implying around 4.7% upside from current levels.

Year-to-date, NVO has lost 11.4%, reflecting investor caution around patent risks, pricing pressure, and the growing competitive field.

The China filing is expected within months, according to Doustdar.

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