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Owning Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) for the robotics story is now the dominant retail thesis: bulls argue Optimus and the Cybercab are option value the market has not paidOwning Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) for the robotics story is now the dominant retail thesis: bulls argue Optimus and the Cybercab are option value the market has not paid

Forget Betting Everything on Tesla’s Robot. This Fund Already Owns the Robotics Winners

Author: 247 Wall St.

Source: 247 Wall St.

2026/06/26 21:29

4 min read

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The post Forget Betting Everything on Tesla’s Robot. This Fund Already Owns the Robotics Winners appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Owning Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) for the robotics story is now the dominant retail thesis: bulls argue Optimus and the Cybercab are option value the market has not paid for, and that the auto business is almost a free call on humanoid robots. The case has logic. Tesla is installing first-generation Optimus production lines at Fremont and a second-generation line at Gigafactory Texas, both designed to produce 10 million robots a year. The problem is structural. For a reader who wants exposure to robotics rather than a Tesla position, the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (NASDAQ:BOTZ) already holds companies that ship robots and the chips that train them.

Why the Tesla robotics bet is expensive

Tesla trades at a trailing P/E of 371 with a $1.43 trillion market cap. Optimus revenue today is effectively zero. The upside in robotics is priced into a multiple that already assumes execution. Q1 FY26 was a solid auto quarter, with revenue of $22.39 billion, up 15.78% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.41. However, the auto gross margin of 21.1% funds the robot program, but does not justify the multiple.

Prediction markets are skeptical of the near-term catalysts that would close the gap. Polymarket assigns a 13.5% probability to an Optimus release by year-end 2026 and a 2.8% probability to a California robotaxi launch by June 30. That means concentrated key-person, regulatory, and execution risk in a single stock that has already declined 15.14% year-to-date.

What BOTZ actually owns

With 48 holdings and $3.54 billion in assets, this fund keeps a pretty tight roster. The top five weights are ABB at 10.5%, NVIDIA at 9.95%, FANUC at 9.69%, Keyence at 6.37%, and Daifuku at 5.27%. Intuitive Surgical comes in at 5.81%, and Cognex at 3.08%. Tesla? Nowhere to be found in BOTZ.

That basket maps to existing robotics revenue. NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) reported Q1 FY27 revenue of $81.62 billion, up 85.23% year over year, with Data Center revenue at $75.25 billion, up 92%. That is the compute backbone for every robotics program, including Tesla’s own Optimus training. ABB, the Swiss industrial robotics leader, has gained 88.52% over the past year. Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) just posted 22.96% revenue growth with da Vinci procedures up 16% and Ion procedures up 39%. Cognex (NASDAQ:CGNX), whose machine vision systems sit inside production-line robots, has risen 115.92% over the past year, driven by 24.26% revenue growth.

The diversification mechanism

The argument is the same one that pushes investors into a chip ETF rather than a single chipmaker. Whichever company eventually wins humanoid robots, the picks-and-shovels names (NVIDIA for compute, Cognex for vision, ABB and FANUC for industrial arms) get paid along the way. BOTZ captures that flow today rather than waiting on a single product launch.

The tradeoffs

The expense ratio for this fund is 0.68%, which is not zero, unlike what you would pay for a direct Tesla position. The top names are also pretty concentrated, with ABB and NVIDIA together accounting for more than 20% of assets, so this is not exactly a pure humanoid play. Short-term performance has been modest too, with the fund up just 1.13% year to date and 20% over the past year. A single positive Optimus demo could send Tesla up double digits in a single session and make BOTZ look like it is standing still.

For taxable accounts, selling Tesla after holding it for a long time would trigger capital gains. A partial swap, sizing BOTZ to the robotics conviction the reader actually has while keeping a residual Tesla position for the auto and Optimus optionality, may be more tax-efficient than a full exit.

What this changes for a Tesla holder

If the reason for owning Tesla is the car company plus full self-driving (FSD), with active subscriptions reaching 1.28 million, up 51% year over year, the position still makes sense on its own terms. If the reason is robotics specifically, paying 378 times earnings for zero current robotics revenue is a steep way to access a theme already represented in a diversified ETF. BOTZ is the cleaner expression of that thesis, with the tradeoff that the upside is spread across many names rather than concentrated in one.

Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Tesla didn’t make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

The post Forget Betting Everything on Tesla’s Robot. This Fund Already Owns the Robotics Winners appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

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