Santiment says Iran deal sparks crypto’s next bull cycle

Bitcoin has climbed more than 11% from its early June low as Santiment says the U.S.-Iran peace agreement may be laying the groundwork for a longer crypto bull market.

According to on-chain analytics firm Santiment, investor sentiment has improved sharply after the United States and Iran reached a peace agreement that eased concerns about supply disruptions, inflation, and escalating geopolitical tensions.

In a June 15 X post, Santiment said traders had spent months reacting to fears surrounding energy markets and global instability. The firm argued that the agreement has instead encouraged investors to focus on reopening trade routes, lowering economic uncertainty, and the prospect of more stable market conditions.

President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the deal with Iran had been finalized, authorizing the toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and ending the U.S. naval blockade. A formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland.

On-chain data points to renewed buying

As risk appetite returned, capital moved back into digital assets while oil prices headed lower.

Santiment noted that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies benefited as traders rotated funds into risk assets following the announcement.

Bitcoin traded above $66,600 on Monday, up roughly 3.5% over recent sessions and more than 11% above its early June low near $59,375. Ethereum climbed to around $1,846, while XRP and Solana gained 8.7% and 7.4%, respectively. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization remained above $2.36 trillion.

At the same time, oil prices moved in the opposite direction. WTI crude settled near $81 per barrel, down roughly 4.4% on the day.

Separate data from Glassnode suggests buying activity had already begun before the latest geopolitical catalyst emerged. The analytics firm reported that Bitcoin’s Accumulation Trend Score started moving toward accumulation after prices fell into the $60,000 range earlier this month.

Glassnode said the pattern indicates investors were absorbing supply during the correction rather than continuing to sell. A separate cohort analysis showed accumulation scores improving across multiple wallet groups, which the firm interpreted as evidence that buyers from different investor segments stepped in as Bitcoin declined.

ETF outflows continue despite improving sentiment

While Santiment sees the market response as potentially significant, the firm emphasized that expectations are playing an important role in the rally.

According to Santiment, financial markets often react before economic benefits become visible. The firm said many participants now view the agreement as an early sign of stability after a volatile period that included inflation concerns, conflict-related uncertainty, and pressure on risk assets.

“If inflation pressures ease and institutional investors finally begin feeling more comfortable themselves, the sharp gains following this announcement may end up looking less like a one-day relief rally and more like the opening chapter of a much larger bull cycle.”

Investor caution has not disappeared entirely. More than $4.8 billion has flowed out of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds since May, and some market participants remain wary after previous ceasefire agreements in the Middle East failed to hold.

Despite this, Santiment argued that improving market sentiment, falling oil prices, and renewed demand for digital assets have created conditions that could support further gains if macroeconomic pressures continue to ease.