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Econbrowser

The Econbrowser column focuses on macroeconomics, financial markets, economic data, and policy analysis, making it useful for users who follow economic cycles and market trends.

Econbrowser's Articles

Imagine: AI Investment Spending Following Dot-Com Boom?

I have no particular expertise in this subject, aside from being around during the dot-com boom (and being a contributor to ERP 2001). Once dot-com related equity

2026/07/04

Calling Rick Stryker (and all other Global Climate Change Skeptics of Yore)

Madison’s had a heat advisory in effect for days — like most of the eastern portion of the US. This reminded me of Rick Stryker’s 2014 admonition to dismiss climate

2026/07/04

Real Wages since February Have Not Kept Up with Inflation

Given nominal wage growth in the private sector for production and nonsuperivisory workers, and nowcasted CPI, real wages are lower than in February. Figure 1:

2026/07/03

Business Cycle Indicators – Key NBER and Alternatives

NFP underwhelms and prior months revised downward, civilian employment and civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept moving downward. Figure 1: NFP employment

2026/07/03

Conference Board Index Still in Gloomy Range

Confidence rises to 91.2, but below consensus (94.4), from downwardly revised level. Gallup also rises. Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference

2026/07/01

Diesel 22.5% above Pre-War

Oil (Brent) prices down, and so too gasoline and diesel. But not back to pre-War. Figure 1: Brent avg of daily (black), regular gasoline (blue), and diesel (red

2026/07/01

Bubbles or Regime-Switching in Gold and Bitcoin?

I don’t have the answer, but the two series do make quite a picture (all in logs since five years ago): Figure 1: Log difference from 6/29/2021 in bitcoin (green

2026/06/30

Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident, Consensus ADP

Coincident continues to rise through May, while Bloomberg consensus for NFP growth is for +114K, roughly same growth rate as in May: Figure 1: Civilian employment

2026/06/30

Brent More Contango-ey

As of NYMEX open: This has occurred as the chances of a near term reopening have declined. Notes: August 1 (orange), September (blue), October (green). Source:

2026/06/29

Rate Cycles (Where Are We Now?)

I’ve been remiss in reporting on this important work by Kristin Forbes, Jongrim Ha and Ayhan Kose, documenting periods of monetary policy tightening ad loosening

2026/06/29