5 key factors will decide Johor election, says Salleh

PETALING JAYA: Former Sabah chief minister Salleh Said Keruak says the outcome of the Johor election on Saturday is likely to hinge on five key factors.

In a Facebook post, the Sabah Umno treasurer said the first question was whether PAS supporters would heed the party’s directive to vote for Barisan Nasional (BN) candidates in constituencies where PAS is not contesting.

He said the extent of vote transfers from PAS supporters to BN could prove decisive in closely contested seats.

Salleh also questioned whether Parti Bersama Malaysia could reduce or split Pakatan Harapan’s vote in the 15 constituencies it is contesting, saying that even a small swing in support could affect the outcome in marginal seats.

He said another factor was whether the emergence of Parti Wawasan Negara, led by opposition leader Hamzah Zainudin, would erode the traditional support base of Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Bersatu.

He said voter turnout would also play a crucial role, particularly the ability of parties and coalitions to mobilise young voters, outstation voters returning home, and those who remain undecided.

Salleh said the final question was whether personal attacks during the campaign would have a greater impact on voters than issues such as the economy, the rising cost of living and political stability.

“The answers to these five questions will likely provide the clearest explanation for the outcome of the Johor state election and could also offer valuable insight into Malaysia’s political landscape ahead of the next general election,” he said.

The Johor state election will feature 172 candidates vying for 56 seats, down from 239 candidates in the 2022 state polls.

BN and PH are vying for all 56 seats, while PN is contesting 33.

PAS, which is only contesting 11 seats, has urged its supporters to back BN candidates in seats not contested by PN.

In the 2022 state election, BN won 40 seats, followed by PH (12), PN (three), and Muda (one).