Strong El Niño will develop rapidly over coming months, says UN weather agency

GENEVA, Switzerland – The United Nations weather agency on Friday, July 3, raised its forecast for the rapid emergence of a strong El Niño in the coming months, warning that the phenomenon is likely to drive global temperatures higher.

El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which typically lasts between 9 and 12 months, that can drive up global temperatures and increase the risk of extreme weather, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

“El Niño conditions have emerged in the Equatorial Pacific, and there is a remarkable agreement between forecast models that this will be a strong El Niño,” said Alvaro Silva, a scientist at the WMO.

The intensity of El Niño is important because it increases the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events in different parts of the world, Silva said.

In early June, the WMO had forecast a moderate or possibly a strong El Niño, but it said recent forecasts had given it more confidence that strong El Niño conditions are developing in the equatorial Pacific. The WMO said it could further revise up its forecast if information later in the summer points to a very strong El Niño.

Seasonal forecasts indicate a strong and robust typical pattern of El Niño, including drier than normal conditions in parts of the world, such as Central America, Caribbean, North and South America, and drier patterns in South Asia during the monsoon season in parts of Indonesia and Southeast Asia, according to the WMO.

“El Niño will also give an extra boost to global temperatures. We know that during El Niño years, the global temperatures normally reach record levels,” Silva said.

Europe experienced its worst recorded heatwave between June 20-28, causing disruption to power generation, damaging infrastructure and overwhelming healthcare systems, experts said. The extreme heat was almost certainly driven by climate change, scientists said.

The effects of El Niño will be felt in different regions until the end of the year and into 2027, Silva added. – Rappler.com