Strategy (MSTR) Stock: CryptoQuant Says Stop Buying Bitcoin and Fix the Cash Problem

TLDR

• CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno says Strategy should pause bitcoin purchases and rebuild cash reserves
• Strategy’s STRC preferred stock fell to $82.50, a record 17.5% below its $100 par value
• Cash reserves have dropped 38% since the start of 2026 while annual dividend obligations have risen nearly fourfold to $1.2 billion
• Dividend coverage has shrunk from over seven years to just 14 months
• Moreno warns Strategy is sitting on roughly $10.6 billion in unrealized bitcoin losses, making a sale damaging to shareholder value

Strategy has a problem, and it’s not just bitcoin’s price.

CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno published a report Tuesday urging Strategy to stop buying bitcoin and focus on shoring up its cash position. The report lands as STRC, Strategy’s preferred stock, hit a record low of $82.50 last week — 17.5% below its $100 par value.

Moreno’s case is straightforward: the company’s dividend obligations are rising fast while its cash cushion is shrinking.

Strategy’s annual dividend burden has ballooned from around $300 million at the start of 2026 to roughly $1.2 billion today. That’s nearly a fourfold jump in under six months, driven by the company issuing more STRC to fund bitcoin purchases.

Strategy Inc, MSTR

At the same time, cash reserves have fallen 38% since January. Strategy also repurchased $1.5 billion of its 0% convertible senior notes due in 2029, which cut further into the available cash buffer.

The result: dividend coverage has collapsed from more than seven years at the start of 2026 to just 14 months now.

The Cash Trap

Moreno estimates Strategy needs around $2.8 billion in cash reserves to restore a healthier 24-month dividend coverage window — roughly double what it currently holds.

Selling bitcoin to get there isn’t a clean option either. Strategy is sitting on an aggregate unrealized bitcoin loss of about $10.6 billion. Every bitcoin bought in 2024, 2025, and 2026 is currently underwater.

So the company is caught: it can’t easily sell bitcoin, and it can’t keep issuing preferred stock without the cash to back it up.

STRC dividends are cumulative, meaning even if Strategy suspends payments, it still owes them later. Moreno thinks suspension is unlikely because it would hurt credibility.

What Moreno Wants Strategy to Do

Beyond pausing purchases, Moreno offered two more recommendations. He wants Strategy to develop a model-driven approach to timing bitcoin buys rather than purchasing whenever capital is available.

He also wants the company to build a framework for selling portions of its bitcoin during future bull markets — something it has never done at scale — to bank gains and refill cash reserves.

JPMorgan analysts flagged similar concerns earlier this month after Strategy sold 32 bitcoin, a move that “spooked” markets despite being largely symbolic.

Strategy can still raise its 11.5% STRC dividend yield or issue MSTR stock to signal dividend-paying ability. Moreno acknowledges both tools are already in use but added: “the path back to $100 is not straightforward.”

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